With Iran set to hold snap polls on Friday to elect the successor to late President Ebrahim Raisi, a three-way race — heading into a run-off — is likely, as per various surveys, though they differ on the positioning of the top three candidates.

Meanwhile, authorities hope for a heavier ‘legitimising’ turnout, given the unprecedented low percentage of voting in the 2021 elections and parliamentary polls earlier this year.

The turnout in the 2021 elections – which Raisi won – was 48.8 per cent – the lowest ever so far since the 1979 revolution. It further declined to around 41 per cent in the two-round Majles election in March and May this year. Part of the disenchantment of voters is over social and economic issues and the prevention of a large number of reformists. Mavericks like former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, barred from the presidential race, also do not pass vetting.

The predictions of the likely turnout, as per the surveys and analyses, depend on the orientation of the pollsters or analysts. While those by emigres, who do not enjoy the best of relations with the present Iranian dispensation, claim a much lower turnout would be recorded this time, those by in-country groups, related to government institutions, are more sanguine, report a slight bump up.

However, they also do not predict any radical breakout.

It was perhaps with this in mind, that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday called for a “maximum” voter turnout in a message to the country’s “enemies”.

“The Islamic Republic has enemies. One thing that helps the Islamic Republic overcome its enemies is the elections. If a good turnout is seen in these elections, then it will make the Islamic Republic proud,” he said in his address at a religious function.

A day before the election, five of the six approved candidates, pegged as four hardliners/conservatives, of various intensities, and reformist, were in the race. Like previous some pervious instances, one of the hardline candidates — Vice President and Foundation of Martyrs and Veteran Affairs head Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi — dropping out and urging others to do so to coalesce support between one strong (hardline) candidate.

However, Hashemi, whose withdrawal was announced on the eve of polls, did not indicate any choice of candidate.

The other two — Tehran Mayor Ali Alireza Zakani and celeriac and former Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi — do not figure much in the calculus.

However, the surveys rate the chances of the top three quite differently, as per reports.

The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), which is affiliated with the government’s Academic Centre of Education, Research, and Culture, in a survey published on Wednesday last week, has forecast a turnout of over 50 per cent, placing Jalili first, and Pezeshkian second – less than a percentage point ahead of Qalibaf.

However, its update on Monday had Pezeshkian now leading over Jalili, albeit by a small margin, while Qalibaf stayed in third place.

In both, none of the leading candidates was even the 30 per cent mark, indicating a run-off.

An update this week had the same positioning but with lower numbers for the candidates. It was also claimed that in a run-off, Qalibaf would beat Pezeshkian, and if the run-off was Qalibaf vs Jalili, the former would triumph then too.

A survey by the “privately-run” Shenaakht, coming out in the middle of the month, predicted well over 50 per cent turnout, and Qalibaf on top and both Pezeshkian and Jalili tied in second place – over 10 percentage points behind.

While for Jalili and Qalibaf, their closeness to Supreme Leader Khamenei and the IRGC background could weigh in their favour with their establishment, sole reformist candidate Pezeshkian, whose presence seems geared at drawing out reformist voters for higher voting, may find the going tough unless there is a massive turnout in his favour.

However, his ethnic background – being an Azeri – could cloud his chances. And then, his recent statements supporting Iran’s return to the nuclear deal and wider outreach to the West drew veiled censure from the Supreme Leader, who was scornful of those believing that “everything good comes from the US”. The other two peg more hopes from BRICS and the SCO.

Pezeshkian also strayed from consensus by expressing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

But, no matter who wins, any radical change in domestic and foreign policies is unlikely since the President is only the second in command. And then, it is the Supreme Leader who also certifies the winner.

AGENCIES

With Iran set to hold snap polls on Friday to elect the successor to late President Ebrahim Raisi, a three-way race — heading into a run-off — is likely, as per various surveys, though they differ on the positioning of the top three candidates.

Meanwhile, authorities hope for a heavier ‘legitimising’ turnout, given the unprecedented low percentage of voting in the 2021 elections and parliamentary polls earlier this year.

The turnout in the 2021 elections – which Raisi won – was 48.8 per cent – the lowest ever so far since the 1979 revolution. It further declined to around 41 per cent in the two-round Majles election in March and May this year. Part of the disenchantment of voters is over social and economic issues and the prevention of a large number of reformists. Mavericks like former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, barred from the presidential race, also do not pass vetting.

The predictions of the likely turnout, as per the surveys and analyses, depend on the orientation of the pollsters or analysts. While those by emigres, who do not enjoy the best of relations with the present Iranian dispensation, claim a much lower turnout would be recorded this time, those by in-country groups, related to government institutions, are more sanguine, report a slight bump up.

However, they also do not predict any radical breakout.

It was perhaps with this in mind, that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday called for a “maximum” voter turnout in a message to the country’s “enemies”.

“The Islamic Republic has enemies. One thing that helps the Islamic Republic overcome its enemies is the elections. If a good turnout is seen in these elections, then it will make the Islamic Republic proud,” he said in his address at a religious function.

A day before the election, five of the six approved candidates, pegged as four hardliners/conservatives, of various intensities, and reformist, were in the race. Like previous some pervious instances, one of the hardline candidates — Vice President and Foundation of Martyrs and Veteran Affairs head Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi — dropping out and urging others to do so to coalesce support between one strong (hardline) candidate.

However, Hashemi, whose withdrawal was announced on the eve of polls, did not indicate any choice of candidate.

The other two — Tehran Mayor Ali Alireza Zakani and celeriac and former Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi — do not figure much in the calculus.

However, the surveys rate the chances of the top three quite differently, as per reports.

The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), which is affiliated with the government’s Academic Centre of Education, Research, and Culture, in a survey published on Wednesday last week, has forecast a turnout of over 50 per cent, placing Jalili first, and Pezeshkian second – less than a percentage point ahead of Qalibaf.

However, its update on Monday had Pezeshkian now leading over Jalili, albeit by a small margin, while Qalibaf stayed in third place.

In both, none of the leading candidates was even the 30 per cent mark, indicating a run-off.

An update this week had the same positioning but with lower numbers for the candidates. It was also claimed that in a run-off, Qalibaf would beat Pezeshkian, and if the run-off was Qalibaf vs Jalili, the former would triumph then too.

A survey by the “privately-run” Shenaakht, coming out in the middle of the month, predicted well over 50 per cent turnout, and Qalibaf on top and both Pezeshkian and Jalili tied in second place – over 10 percentage points behind.

While for Jalili and Qalibaf, their closeness to Supreme Leader Khamenei and the IRGC background could weigh in their favour with their establishment, sole reformist candidate Pezeshkian, whose presence seems geared at drawing out reformist voters for higher voting, may find the going tough unless there is a massive turnout in his favour.

However, his ethnic background – being an Azeri – could cloud his chances. And then, his recent statements supporting Iran’s return to the nuclear deal and wider outreach to the West drew veiled censure from the Supreme Leader, who was scornful of those believing that “everything good comes from the US”. The other two peg more hopes from BRICS and the SCO.

Pezeshkian also strayed from consensus by expressing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

But, no matter who wins, any radical change in domestic and foreign policies is unlikely since the President is only the second in command. And then, it is the Supreme Leader who also certifies the winner.

AGENCIES

With Iran set to hold snap polls on Friday to elect the successor to late President Ebrahim Raisi, a three-way race — heading into a run-off — is likely, as per various surveys, though they differ on the positioning of the top three candidates.

Meanwhile, authorities hope for a heavier ‘legitimising’ turnout, given the unprecedented low percentage of voting in the 2021 elections and parliamentary polls earlier this year.

The turnout in the 2021 elections – which Raisi won – was 48.8 per cent – the lowest ever so far since the 1979 revolution. It further declined to around 41 per cent in the two-round Majles election in March and May this year. Part of the disenchantment of voters is over social and economic issues and the prevention of a large number of reformists. Mavericks like former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, barred from the presidential race, also do not pass vetting.

The predictions of the likely turnout, as per the surveys and analyses, depend on the orientation of the pollsters or analysts. While those by emigres, who do not enjoy the best of relations with the present Iranian dispensation, claim a much lower turnout would be recorded this time, those by in-country groups, related to government institutions, are more sanguine, report a slight bump up.

However, they also do not predict any radical breakout.

It was perhaps with this in mind, that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday called for a “maximum” voter turnout in a message to the country’s “enemies”.

“The Islamic Republic has enemies. One thing that helps the Islamic Republic overcome its enemies is the elections. If a good turnout is seen in these elections, then it will make the Islamic Republic proud,” he said in his address at a religious function.

A day before the election, five of the six approved candidates, pegged as four hardliners/conservatives, of various intensities, and reformist, were in the race. Like previous some pervious instances, one of the hardline candidates — Vice President and Foundation of Martyrs and Veteran Affairs head Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi — dropping out and urging others to do so to coalesce support between one strong (hardline) candidate.

However, Hashemi, whose withdrawal was announced on the eve of polls, did not indicate any choice of candidate.

The other two — Tehran Mayor Ali Alireza Zakani and celeriac and former Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi — do not figure much in the calculus.

However, the surveys rate the chances of the top three quite differently, as per reports.

The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), which is affiliated with the government’s Academic Centre of Education, Research, and Culture, in a survey published on Wednesday last week, has forecast a turnout of over 50 per cent, placing Jalili first, and Pezeshkian second – less than a percentage point ahead of Qalibaf.

However, its update on Monday had Pezeshkian now leading over Jalili, albeit by a small margin, while Qalibaf stayed in third place.

In both, none of the leading candidates was even the 30 per cent mark, indicating a run-off.

An update this week had the same positioning but with lower numbers for the candidates. It was also claimed that in a run-off, Qalibaf would beat Pezeshkian, and if the run-off was Qalibaf vs Jalili, the former would triumph then too.

A survey by the “privately-run” Shenaakht, coming out in the middle of the month, predicted well over 50 per cent turnout, and Qalibaf on top and both Pezeshkian and Jalili tied in second place – over 10 percentage points behind.

While for Jalili and Qalibaf, their closeness to Supreme Leader Khamenei and the IRGC background could weigh in their favour with their establishment, sole reformist candidate Pezeshkian, whose presence seems geared at drawing out reformist voters for higher voting, may find the going tough unless there is a massive turnout in his favour.

However, his ethnic background – being an Azeri – could cloud his chances. And then, his recent statements supporting Iran’s return to the nuclear deal and wider outreach to the West drew veiled censure from the Supreme Leader, who was scornful of those believing that “everything good comes from the US”. The other two peg more hopes from BRICS and the SCO.

Pezeshkian also strayed from consensus by expressing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

But, no matter who wins, any radical change in domestic and foreign policies is unlikely since the President is only the second in command. And then, it is the Supreme Leader who also certifies the winner.

AGENCIES

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has won a $843 million NASA contract to prepare for the safe and responsible deorbit of the International Space Station (ISS) in a controlled manner after the end of its operational life in 2030.

As part of the contract, SpaceX will develop and deliver the US Deorbit Vehicle that will provide the capability to deorbit the space station and ensure avoidance of risk to populated areas.

“Selecting a US Deorbit Vehicle for the International Space Station will help NASA and its international partners ensure a safe and responsible transition in low Earth orbit at the end of station operations,” said Ken Bowersox, associate administrator for Space Operations Mission Directorate at NASA Headquarters in Washington.

While SpaceX will make the deorbit spacecraft, NASA will operate it throughout its mission. In addition to the space station, it is expected to destructively break up as part of the re-entry process.

The ISS has seen astronauts from CSA (Canadian Space Agency), ESA (European Space Agency), JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency), NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration), and State Space Corporation Roscosmos, since 1998.

Each agency was responsible for managing and controlling the hardware it provided.

While the US, Japan, Canada, and the participating countries of ESA have committed to operating the station through 2030, Russia has committed to continued station operations through at least 2028.

The ISS is currently in its 24th year of continuous crewed operations, and more than 3,300 experiments have, to date, been conducted in microgravity.

AGENCIES

 South Korea, the US and Japan began their first trilateral multi-domain exercise on Thursday, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said, amid efforts to deepen security cooperation against threats from North Korea, recently emboldened by its deepening ties with Russia.

The three-day exercise, named Freedom Edge, got underway in international waters south of South Korea’s southern resort island of Jeju, the JCS said, after the three countries’ defence chiefs agreed to launch the drills early this month in line with their leaders’ agreement last year, Yonhap news agency reported.

Last August, President Yoon Suk Yeol, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida agreed to hold “annual, named, multidomain” trilateral exercises regularly during their summit at Camp David as part of efforts to deter evolving nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.

The drills mobilised various warships and aircraft from the three sides, including the US Navy’s USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier, South Korea’s Seoae Ryu Seong-ryong destroyer and Japan’s JS Ise helicopter destroyer.

“Freedom Edge expresses the will of South Korea, the US and Japan to promote trilateral interoperability and protect freedom for peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific, including the Korean Peninsula,” the JCS said in a statement.

The exercise will focus on ballistic missile defence, air defence, anti-submarine warfare, search and rescue, maritime interdiction and defensive cyber training, the JCS said, adding the three sides will continue to expand Freedom Edge going forward.

The new exercise takes its name from key bilateral exercises the US holds regularly with the Asian neighbours — Freedom Shield with South Korea and Keen Edge with Japan.

While the three countries have held combined maritime and aerial exercises, Freedom Edge marks their first trilateral exercise to take place across multiple domains.

Freedom Edge also takes place amid growing concerns over deepening military ties between North Korea and Russia.

Last Wednesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a summit in Pyongyang, where they signed a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty that calls for military assistance if one of them is attacked.

South Korea, the US and Japan have jointly condemned the expanding military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.

AGENCIES

South Korea’s Foreign Ministry on Thursday dismissed Japan’s renewed protest over South Korea’s routine maritime survey near the East Sea islets of Dokdo.On Wednesday, Japan’s Foreign Ministry complained through diplomatic channels, demanding an immediate halt to the maritime survey conducted by the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency around the rocky islets.

This marked the third complaint lodged by Japan in June, following similar protests on June 6 and 11, Yonhap news agency reported.

In response, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the maritime survey is a legitimate activity, emphasising that Dokdo is indisputably South Korean territory historically, geographically and under international law.

“We cannot accept any of Japan’s claims regarding our territorial sovereignty,” a Ministry official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Dokdo has long been a recurring source of tension between the two neighbours, as Tokyo repeatedly asserts its sovereignty claims in policy papers, public statements and school textbooks.

Tokyo also complains every time Seoul conducts regular maritime surveys.

The state-run Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency regularly dispatches a research vessel around Dokdo to monitor ocean currents and measure sea temperatures using sonar technology as part of its ongoing maritime surveys.

South Korea maintains a small police detachment on the islets, effectively controlling them.

AGENCIES

Seven suspected rebels have been killed in a clash in Nueva Ecija province, north of Manila, the Philippine military said on Thursday.In a report, the military said that the fighting broke out between a band of the New People’s Army rebels and government forces on Wednesday afternoon in Pantabangan town, Xinhua news agency reported.No soldier was killed or wounded in the clash.

AGENCIES

 At least 70 people were injured after a passenger train derailed in Russia’s northwestern Komi region, local media reported, citing authorities.

Nine carriages of the train overturned on Wednesday, resulting in injuries, but no deaths were reported in the accident, reported the RIA news agency, citing Russia’s state railroad company.

Emergency services and medical teams have been sent to the location.

Heavy rain was said to be the possible major cause of the accident, Xinhua news agency reported, citing media reports.

The train carrying over 200 passengers was reportedly on its way from Vorkuta, a mining town near the Arctic Circle, to the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

AGENCIES

North Korea has successfully conducted a missile test aimed at securing multiple warhead capability, state media reported on Thursday, contradicting South Korea’s assessment that the test is believed to have ended in failure.

During the test conducted on Wednesday, North Korea’s Missile Administration “successfully conducted the separation and guidance control test of individual mobile warheads”, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said.

North Korea said the test was “aimed at securing the MIRV capability”, referring to multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle technology, which allows a single ballistic missile to deliver multiple warheads to different targets.

The announcement contradicts South Korea’s assessment that the missile exploded in the air, Yonhap news agency reported.

On Wednesday, South Korea said that the missile was launched from an area in or around Pyongyang at around 5:30 a.m. but exploded over the East Sea after flying some 250 km.

However, North Korea said the test “used the first-stage engine of an intermediate-range solid-fuel ballistic missile within a 170-200 kilometre radius”.

The separated mobile warheads were guided correctly to three target coordinates, the KCNA said.

The effectiveness of a decoy separated from the missile was also verified by anti-air radar, it added.

The test was overseen by Pak Jong-chon, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), and Kim Jong-sik, first vice department director of the WPK Central Committee, the KCNA said.

The officials emphasised that enhancing “the MIRV capability is a very important defence technological task and a top priority of the WPK Central Committee,” the KCNA reported, suggesting it might also be a top priority for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Developing MIRV technology was included in North Korea’s five-year development plan, which was unveiled during the eighth congress of the WPK in January 2021.

North Korea claimed that “the test is part of the administration’s normal activities,” the KCNA said.

This is the first time North Korea has publicly disclosed that it conducted a missile test to secure multiple warhead capability.

South Korea, the US and Japan condemned North Korea’s ballistic missile launch as a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

AGENCIES

The number of patients who died from the latest outbreak of West Nile fever in Israel has risen to four, with one new death case, the country’s Ministry of Health has said.The ministry said on Wednesday that it is currently investigating a suspected case where the virus may have caused another patient’s death, Xinhua news agency reported.

The ministry also reported six new cases of infection with the virus, bringing the total number to 48 since the beginning of May. Among them, 36 were hospitalized, with five patients under ventilation.

On Tuesday, Israel’s environmental protection and health ministries reported that mosquitoes infected with the virus were detected at Ben Gurion International Airport outside Tel Aviv.

Following the detection, the Israel Airports Authority conducted extensive pest control in the airport area.

The virus, mainly transmitted through mosquito bites, typically causes flu-like symptoms including headaches, fever, and muscle aches.

However, in about one in 150 cases, it can lead to severe central nervous system illnesses like encephalitis or meningitis, potentially causing paralysis, brain damage, or even death.

AGENCIES

 With Iran set to hold snap polls on Friday to elect the successor to late President Ebrahim Raisi, a three-way race — heading into a run-off — is likely, as per various surveys, though they differ on the positioning of the top three candidates.

Meanwhile, authorities hope for a heavier ‘legitimising’ turnout, given the unprecedented low percentage of voting in the 2021 elections and parliamentary polls earlier this year.

The turnout in the 2021 elections – which Raisi won – was 48.8 per cent – the lowest ever so far since the 1979 revolution. It further declined to around 41 per cent in the two-round Majles election in March and May this year. Part of the disenchantment of voters is over social and economic issues and the prevention of a large number of reformists. Mavericks like former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, barred from the presidential race, also do not pass vetting.

The predictions of the likely turnout, as per the surveys and analyses, depend on the orientation of the pollsters or analysts. While those by emigres, who do not enjoy the best of relations with the present Iranian dispensation, claim a much lower turnout would be recorded this time, those by in-country groups, related to government institutions, are more sanguine, report a slight bump up.

However, they also do not predict any radical breakout.

It was perhaps with this in mind, that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday called for a “maximum” voter turnout in a message to the country’s “enemies”.

“The Islamic Republic has enemies. One thing that helps the Islamic Republic overcome its enemies is the elections. If a good turnout is seen in these elections, then it will make the Islamic Republic proud,” he said in his address at a religious function.

All six approved candidates, pegged as five hardliners/conservatives, of various intensities, and one reformist, are still in the race, unlike some previous instances, when some hardliners withdrew and threw support behind others of their persuasion to prevent vote fragmentation.

The top three contenders are former chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, Majles Speaker and former Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (both hardliners), and cardiac surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian, who served as a minister in the Khatami regime (reformist).

The other three – Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, Vice President and Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs head Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, and cleric and former Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi – do not figure much in the calculus.

However, the surveys rate the chances of the top three quite differently, as per reports.

The Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), which is affiliated with the government’s Academic Centre of Education, Research, and Culture, in a survey published on Wednesday last week, has forecast a turnout of over 50 per cent, placing Jalili first, and Pezeshkian second – less than a percentage point ahead of Qalibaf.

However, its update on Monday had Pezeshkian now leading over Jalili, albeit by a small margin, while Qalibaf stayed in third place.

In both, none of the leading candidates was even the 30 per cent mark, indicating a run-off.

Meta, a polling organisation in the Imam Sadeq University in Tehran, in its survey published last week, had forecast just over 50 per cent turnout, with Pezeshkian ahead – but over Qalibaf, while Jalili was in third place.

An update this week had the same positioning but with lower numbers for the candidates. It was also claimed that in a run-off, Qalibaf would beat Pezeshkian, and if the run-off was Qalibaf vs Jalili, the former would triumph then too.

A survey by the “privately-run” Shenaakht, coming out in the middle of the month, predicted well over 50 per cent turnout, and Qalibaf on top and both Pezeshkian and Jalili tied in second place – over 10 percentage points behind.

While for Jalili and Qalibaf, their closeness to Supreme Leader Khamenei and the IRGC background could weigh in their favour with their establishment, sole reformist candidate Pezeshkian, whose presence seems geared at drawing out reformist voters for higher voting, may find the going tough unless there is a massive turnout in his favour.

However, his ethnic background – being an Azeri – could cloud his chances. And then, his recent statements supporting Iran’s return to the nuclear deal and wider outreach to the West drew veiled censure from the Supreme Leader, who was scornful of those believing that “everything good comes from the US.” The other two peg more hopes from BRICS and the SCO.

Pezeshkian also strayed from consensus by expressing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

But, no matter who wins, any radical change in domestic and foreign policies is unlikely since the President is only the second in command. And then, it is the Supreme Leader who also certifies the winner.

AGENCIES