The country’s nets direct tax collection posted a robust 19.5 per cent growth to Rs 5.74 lakh as on till July 11 of the current financial year (2024-25) compared to the same period of the previous year, according to the latest figures compiled by the Income Tax Department

Net corporate tax collections from April 1 to July 11 increased 12.5 per cent over the same period last year to Rs 2.1 lakh crore, while personal income tax including securities transaction tax rose 24 per cent to Rs 3.64 lakh crore.

Gross direct tax collections, before refunds, surged 23.2 per cent compared to the same period last to Rs 6.45 lakh, the figures showed.

There has also been a 64.5 per cent increase in direct tax refunds during the current financial year at Rs 70,902 crore between April 1 and July 11.

The buoyancy in tax collections will help the government control the fiscal deficit as it gears up to present the full budget for 2024-15 on July 3.

The hefty Rs 2.11 lakh crore dividend from the RBI and the robust direct tax and GST collections will give the Finance Minister headroom for pushing ahead with policies aimed at accelerating growth and implementing social welfare schemes aimed at uplifting the poor.

The fiscal deficit has been reduced from more than 9 per cent of GDP in 2020-21 to the targeted level of 5.1 per cent for 2024-25. This has strengthened the macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy. S&P Global Rating raised India’s sovereign rating outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’, citing the country’s improving finances and strong economic growth.

After having presented an interim budget ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, the Finance Minister will now present the full budget for 2024-25 that ensures the economy continues on the high growth trajectory and creates more jobs during the third term of the Modi government.

Sitharaman is expected to increase the exemption limit for income tax to give some relief to the middle class. This would place more disposable income in the hands of consumers and lead to an increase in demand to fuel economic growth. AGENCIES

 The food prices are projected to cool off in the coming months and the inflation trajectory to soften and stabilise between 4 and 4.5 per cent, industry experts have said.

India’s consumer price inflation (CPI) edged up to 5.08 per cent in June this year compared to the same period last year.

According to industry experts, although June rains were deficient, it is not a major concern because July and August rains are what matter for Kharif.

“We expect the progress on monsoons and pick up in sowing to improve agricultural output and cool off food inflation in the coming months,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, Crisil.

Non-food inflation eased for the 17th straight month, sliding to a record low of 2.3 per cent.

“Net-net, we expect a decline in food inflation in the coming months to drag down headline inflation to an average of 4.5 per cent. That said, no rate cuts are expected in the forthcoming policy as RBI pursues a target of 4 per cent durable inflation,” Joshi explained.

Inflation had eased to a 12-month low of 4.75 per cent in May after having come down to 4.83 per cent in April, which was an 11-month low.

The June figures mark a break from the declining trend that had set in during recent months.

According to Sanjeev Agrawal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI), CPI inflation for the month of June is majorly stoked by the food and beverages inflation rising from 7.9 per cent in May to 8.4 per cent in June.

“Going ahead, we expect the food prices to stabilise in the coming months and inflation trajectory also to soften and stabilise between 4 and 4.5 per cent,” Agrawal said.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, said barring food and beverages, inflation across all the other sub-groups remained below the 4 per cent mark in June.

“With nearly 50 per cent of kharif sowing usually taking place in the month of July, adequate rainfall across regions will be critical over the next few weeks to accelerate the pace of sowing,” she noted.

ICRA estimates the headline CPI inflation to soften to 2.5-3 per cent in July entirely on account of the favourable base effect (+7.4 per cent in July 2023), which will partly absorb the impact of the sequential surge in prices of vegetables. AGENCIES

 Human-centric mobile artificial intelligence (AI) is the future and open collaboration among the industry and a distinct approach to hybrid AI is the only way to achieve the best possible mobile AI experience for users, experts said here on Saturday.

It’s not enough just to innovate for good but it is equally essential to do so responsibly, they added during an AI session.

“Within months, we have democratised Galaxy AI, extending access to more models and form factors. It’s a feat only possible through close collaboration with our industry partners and our distinct approach to hybrid AI to bring our users the most practical, reliable and versatile mobile AI experience possible,” said Won-Joon Choi, EVP and Head of Mobile R&D Office, Mobile eXperience Business, Samsung.

According to Dr Chris Brauer, Goldsmiths, University of London, it is the first stage of exploring and understanding the relationship between AI and indicators we know correlate to a person’s life quality.

“The key indicators we looked at were creativity, productivity, physical health and social relationships. What we discovered gives a very clear indication of the immense potential that lies ahead for AI users,” said Brauer at the session.

Jenny Blackburn, VP of User Experience for Gemini Experiences and Google Assistant, Google, said that without cutting-edge mobile devices from partners like Samsung, “capabilities of our world-class platforms would be underutilised”.

The industry experts also deliberated upon to create responsible AI experiences.

“AI Policy Observatory will ensure informed decisions and help policymakers to keep up with developments. We work directly with leaders in government and major tech companies alike,” said Lucia Russo, economist and policy analyst in AI unit, OECD Digital Economy Policy Division.

The majority of people are enthusiastic about mobile AI’s potential, with many reporting that they will embrace mobile AI even more as the technology advances in the future.

“As the era of AI rapidly evolves, a group of frequent mobile AI users is emerging, and there’s indication of a relationship between frequent AI use and quality of life,” according to a recent survey.

Frequent mobile AI users are about 1.4 times more likely to rate their quality of life as good to very good compared to rare AI users. AGENCIES

 Given the country’s innate strengths, it is possible to imagine India striking out into the next decade to become the second largest economy in the world not by 2048, but by 2031, and the largest economy of the world by 2060, RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra has said.

In a speech at the Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy of Administration, Mussoorie, this week, Patra said there is a traditional advantage that is likely to continue working in favour of India’s growth prospects. The development process has been predominantly driven by capital accumulation, which makes investment the main lever of growth which has stabilised at 31.2 per cent during 2021-23, and is showing signs of acceleration.

In his speech now posted on the RBI website, Patra said: “Historically, India’s investment has been financed by domestic savings, with households being the prime provider of resources to the rest of the economy. In the period 2021-23, the gross domestic saving rate has averaged 30.7 per cent of gross national disposable income. Thus, unlike many countries, India does not have to depend on foreign resources, which play a minor and supplemental role in the growth process.”

The current account gap in the balance of payments – has remained modest at around 1 per cent of GDP in 2023-24. This provides insulation to the Indian economy from external shocks and imparts viability and strength to the external sector. Illustratively, India’s gross external debt, which is the accumulation of current account deficits over time, is less than 20 per cent of GDP and almost entirely covered by the level of foreign exchange reserves, Patra explained.

Second, the rising growth trajectory on which India is poised is entrenched by macroeconomic and financial stability as inflation has fallen back into the tolerance band around the target of 4 per cent. This reflects the cumulative impact of steadfast monetary policy actions and supply management. In fact, core inflation that excludes food and fuel and is most amenable to monetary policy has fallen to its lowest level ever.

Alongside macroeconomic stability, financial stability is getting reinforced by prudent financial policies and active on-site supervision complemented with off-site surveillance, which harnesses SupTech, big data analytics and cyber security drills. India’s financial sector is predominantly bank-based. Gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) in the banking system have steadily fallen from their peak in March 2018 to 2.8 per cent of total assets by March 2024, he added.

Another aspect of macroeconomic stability is the ongoing fiscal consolidation. As a result, the general government debt which is estimated at 81.6 per cent of GDP at the end of March 2024 is expected to decline to 78.2 per cent by end of this decade by the IMF. Our projections show that if expenditures are increased on reskilling/upskilling the labour force in the most productive sectors of manufacturing, investing in digitalisation and promoting energy efficiency, the general government debt will fall even further to 73.4 per cent of GDP by 2030-313. This is significant in the context of the IMF’s projections that show the debt ratio as projected to rise to 116.3 per cent in 2028 for advanced economies and to 78.1 per cent for emerging and middle-income countries, Patra said.

He also explained that a potent growth accelerator emerges from India’s favourable demographic dynamics. India’s population is now regarded as its greatest asset in an inter-temporal perspective, especially when the rest of the world ages rapidly and populations shrink. Today, every sixth working-age person in the world is an Indian. India’s demographic dividend is expected to last for more than three decades. Every effort must be made to reap this opportunity, he added.

Patra pointed out that another growth multiplier is India’s digital revolution. India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging digital technologies for transformative change. The trinity of JAM – Jan Dhan (basic no-frills accounts); Aadhaar (universal unique identification); and mobile phone connections – is expanding the ambit of formal finance, boosting tech start-ups and enabling the targeting of direct benefit transfers. India’s Unified Payment Interface (UPI), an open-ended system that powers multiple bank accounts into a single mobile application is propelling inter-bank peer-to-peer and person-to-merchant transactions seamlessly. Payment systems in India operate on a 24 by 7 by 365 basis. The internationalisation of the UPI is progressing rapidly, the RBI deputy Governor added. AGENCIES

 India has shown remarkable resilience amid global challenges by continuously moving on a high growth trajectory on the back of prudent policy measures and vigilant monetary policy stance, industry experts said on Saturday.

The foreign exchange reserves surged by $5.16 billion to reach a lifetime high of $657.16 billion during the week ended July 5, according to the latest RBI data.

“This would accelerate India’s economic growth to new highs, bolstering its global stature. This increase in Forex reserves will boost India’s worldwide attractiveness, supporting domestic trade and industry,” said Shri Sanjeev Agrawal, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PHDCCI).

India’s significant foreign exchange reserves would give the Central bank greater flexibility in managing the country’s currency and monetary policy in light of geopolitical conditions and global macroeconomic headwinds, said experts.

Amit Goel, Co-founder and Chief Global Strategist, Pace 360, said the Central bank has been using its reserves to check volatility in the currency.

“The rupee is among the best-performing Asian currencies so far this year. The monetary authority will continue to build reserves ‘opportunistically’ as they help prevent volatility in the market,” said Goel.

A strong forex kitty enables the RBI to intervene in the spot and forward currency markets by releasing more dollars to prevent the rupee from going into a free fall.

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das had recently said that India’s external sector remains resilient and overall, the Central bank remains confident of meeting the country’s external financing requirements comfortably.AGENCIES

 As India embarks on its journey to become ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047, it’s important that we have appropriate credit ratings and call out global agencies for biases and lack of transparency for not objectively assessing India’s strong economic fundamentals, G20 Sherpa and former NITI Aayog CEO, Amitabh Kant, said on Saturday. 

Addressing the CareEdge Ratings ‘Conversations 2024’ conference in Pune, he said the notion that developing countries offer more risky investments is not solely based on objective financial metrics but is significantly influenced by subjective assessment.

Kant stressed the need for promoting home-grown credit ratings agencies, saying that appropriate sovereign credit ratings are actually a very critical issue that impacts not only India but also the entire emerging economies.

Hailing India’s high growth rate of around 8.2 per cent, he stressed that future growth will come from cutting-edge areas.

According to Najib Shah, Chairman, CareEdge, the world is moving away from domination by a single superpower, a single currency and moving towards a more balanced and complex system that’s emerging and evolving.

“Such an environment also has implications for the financial situation. Destructive competition between the US and China has ushered in a new era of competing geopolitics and economies. The role of the credit rating agency will be important here for acting in a transparent, competitive, professional manner,” Shah told the gathering.

At the event, Gulshan Malik, Deputy Managing Director, State Bank of India (SBI) said the banking sector in India is adequately capitalised as well as ready to fund the next phase of growth which is very critical. AGENCIES

 Sridhar Vembu, CEO and Co-founder of Cloud software major Zoho, on Saturday said the company has opened its first dedicated factory to assemble the Karuvi line of power tools.

The company, situated in Tenkasi district in Tamil Nadu, last month announced to invest an undisclosed amount in manufacturing startup Karuvi, which would create jobs in smaller towns and villages.

“The factory is in a small village called Mathapuram in Tenkasi district, close to the Zoho office in Mathalamparai village,” informed Vembu on X social media platform.

“We have trained a group of about 15 talented young people drawn from surrounding villages to work in the factory,” he said, adding that this is a small beginning for a big dream in rural manufacturing.

Zoho has also invested in an aerospace startup called Yali Aerospace.

The investments are part of its ongoing efforts to build deep-tech know-how and manufacturing capabilities in India.

According to Vembu, Karuvi and Yali are startups that are not only innovating in their respective fields but are also creating jobs and bringing technical skill-sets to smaller towns and villages.

Karuvi is a mechatronics startup that has launched 10 tools ranging from drills and power saws to angle grinders. The Karuvi products are manufactured with around 95 per cent locally sourced components.

According to MSD Prasad, CEO of Karuvi, they will add more tools to the portfolio and plan to have at least 30 products by the end of 2025.AGENCIES

 Three people were killed after a plane crashed in the Moscow Region, the Russian Emergencies Ministry said in a statement.

According to preliminary information, the plane, a Russian-designed Superjet 100, fell in a forest area in the Kolomensky district of the Moscow Region, Xinhua news agency reported on Friday.

The crash took place during a test flight after a scheduled repair, the TASS news agency reported.

No casualties have been reported among the local population. AGENCIES

 At least 60 bodies of Palestinians were found on the streets and in houses after the Israeli army withdrew from some neighbourhoods in Gaza City in the northern Gaza Strip, the Civil Defence Service in Gaza said.

The Civil Defence Service said on Friday that its crew members began to recover the deceased from the Tal al-Hawa neighbourhood and some areas west of the city following the withdrawal of Israeli army forces.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement on Friday that its troops started a “counterterrorism” operation in the area earlier this week after intelligence indicated that Hamas and Islamic Jihad militants and infrastructure were embedded inside the UNRWA headquarters in Gaza City.

The IDF said on its X account on Friday that it found large quantities of weapons in a compound near UNRWA’s headquarters, Xinhua news agency reported.

It added that the troops opened a “defined corridor” to enable civilians to evacuate from the area at the start of the operation.

On Thursday, more than 60 bodies were also recovered from the rubble in the eastern Gaza City neighbourhood of Shujaiya after a two-week Israeli ground offensive.

Israel has been conducting a large-scale offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip to retaliate against a Hamas rampage through the southern Israeli border on October 7, 2023, during which about 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 were taken hostage.

The Gaza-based health authorities said on Thursday that the Palestinian death toll from ongoing Israeli attacks on Gaza has risen to 38,345. AGENCIES

 The H5N1 highly pathogenic avian flu virus may be more infectious to humans if passed on from cattle than directly from birds,  local media reported, citing a team of researchers in Japan.

The researchers led by Yoshihiro Kawaoka, director of the University of Tokyo, Pandemic Preparedness, Infection and Advanced Research Center, published their findings in the online edition of the British scientific journal Nature dated July 9, reported Xinhua news agency.

The team used receptors in human respiratory cells to react with both bovine-derived and avian-derived H5N1 viruses and found that the bovine-derived virus had stronger binding strength than the avian-derived virus, with the data suggesting that the former “more efficiently infects humans” than the latter, the media report published in Japanese daily Mainichi Shimbun said on Wednesday.

The researchers also confirmed that bovine-derived virus is highly pathogenic to mice and ferrets. When ferrets and mice were infected with bovine-derived H5N1, the virus multiplied throughout the body, including the brain and muscles, and was highly virulent, it added.

“It has been suggested that the nature of the virus may have changed. We should be concerned about human-to-human transmission as well in the future,” Kawaoka said.

The H5N1 strain is characterised by its extremely high infectivity and virulence in birds. Global outbreaks began in the 2000s, causing mass deaths of chickens in many regions.

A series of cases of infection in various mammals have been found since 2020, with 28 human infections reported to the World Health Organisation, but no cases of human-to-human transmission have been confirmed, Mainichi Shimbun reported. AGENCIES